May 19

Daily Market Commentary : 18th May 2016

After two consecutive weeks of gains, the Indian equity market shut with modest losses on Wednesday amid a sharp late recovery. Weak global cues dragged the Indian indices to open with a negative gap down. However, the day progressed; benchmarks staged a smart recovery led by gains in the realty, metals and capital goods stocks. The auto, power, utilities and consumer durables stocks ended with losses. Nifty closed with a loss of 21 points at 7,870 while Sensex ended with a loss of 69 points at 25,705.

A bulk of this supply would go to the power sector where around 30,000 MW of plants do not have any coal supply agreement from Coal India. Coal India is looking to offer 8 mt of coal to power companies and 2 tonnes to other sectors every month.

At present, despite surplus coal, some 57,000 MW of thermal power units are fuel deprived since they do not have supply contract from Coal India. Reportedly, 9,000 MW of capacity is already achieved commercial operation with coal received on ad hoc sources and the rest (48,000 MW) of capacity is in various stages of construction. These plants would come up from this year onwards till 2020.

In another development, Coal India and NTPC have formally inked a joint venture agreement for the revival of now defunct gas-based Sindri and Gorakhpur plants of Fertilizer Corporation of India. The revival of these plants was estimated to cost about Rs 180 billion over the next four years. Gas for the plants will be supplied through the proposed Jagdishpur-Haldia pipeline. State utility GAIL has been reportedly asked to expedite the pipeline from Jagdishpur in Uttar Pradesh to Haldia in West Bengal. Having failed to revive the plants through auctions, the government asked NTPC and Coal India to take over the units. India’s urea production touched a record 24.5 million tonnes in 2015-16. While the country’s total demand is about 30 million tonnes, the rest is met through imports.

Coal India finished flat while NTPC closed on a negative note (down 0.6%) on the BSE.

Moving on to news from textile sector. According to The Economic Times, SRF is planning to invest Rs 35 billion over the next four years, 70% of which would go into its fast-growing chemicals business. SRF, which exports 90% of its chemicals and counts Syngenta, BASF, Bayer CropScience and other global biggies as its clients, has over the years steered its focus away from technical textiles to chemicals, where it has witnessed a rapid revenue growth and fat operating margins.

Reportedly, SRF will use internal resources to fund the planned investment as the company generates about Rs 10 billion of free cash flow every year. In four years, even as it completes its planned expansion, SRF’s net debt-equity ratio will improve to 0.3 from 0.74 now.

SRF’s shares have risen more than 25% in the past year as its focus on chemicals intensified. SRF is confident of capturing a larger share of the chemicals market because of its rising knowledge and technological capabilities(Subscription Required) in a world where increased demand for food and medicine require food and drugs companies to engage more with innovative chemicals suppliers.

SRF finished the day up by 0.2% on the BSE.

Top of Form

USDINR trade today trading down 10 paise at 66.97 per US dollar.

Out of 1,432 stocks traded on the NSE, 692 declined and 649 advanced today.

Top 5 Nifty Gainers: Lupin Ltd (2.06%), Tata Motors (1.35%), Tata Steel (1.02%), BHEL (0.92%) and Wipro (0.57%).

Top 5 Nifty Losers: HDFC (-1.62%), NTPC (-1.61%), ITC Ltd (-1.55%), Bharti Airtel (-1.18%) and Wipro (-0.97%),

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May 18

Daily Market Commentary : 17th May 2016

The Indian equity market managed to eke out modest gains on Tuesday extending winning streak to second consecutive trading session. Overnight gains in the US and Asian markets lifted the benchmarks to open with a positive gap up, indices remained upbeat in first half, however, a sudden bout of selling pressure in the power, telecom, FMCG and few metals stocks dragged indices off day’s high finally. Nifty closed with a gain of 30 points at 7,891 while Sensex ended with a gain of 120 points at 25,774.

Barring China, major Asian markets finished on a positive note as of the most recent closing prices. Stock markets in Singapore and Japan ended the day higher by 1.6% and 1.1% respectively. Oil prices were trading at US$ 47.90 a barrel at the time of writing. The rupee was trading at 66.72 against the US$.

Sectoral indices finished the day on a positive note with stocks from oil &gas and automobile sectors witnessing buying interest.

As per an article in leading financial daily, Bharat Forge reported its results for the quarter ended March 2016. The company’s revenues declined by 17.6% YoY to Rs 10 billion during the quarter. The revenue was impacted by subdued demand of commercial vehicles (CV) from North America. Reportedly, the exports declined by 28.7% as compared to a year ago. While, the business from America too declined by 41.8%.

Further, the operating profits fell by 17.1% YoY to Rs 2.9 billion. However, operating margins improved by 0.2% YoY to 29.6% during the quarter. The margins expanded on the back of lower raw material costs and other expense.

The company’s net profits declined by 19% to Rs 1.6 billion during the quarter. The management expects the demand to worsen in the first quarter of FY17 as compared to the fourth quarter of FY16 because of inventory destocking and continued weakness in the export market.

The company is gearing itself to capitalise on the opportunities presented by the Modi government’s ‘Make in India’ programme particularly in the rail, power, defense and aerospace sector. Going forward, a revival in demand from North America coupled with the order inflows from the ‘Make in India’ initiative will be the key things to watch out for the company.

In another news update, India’s coffee output is expected to drop by around a quarter to the lowest in nearly two decades in the next crop year. This is on account of poor rains and hot temperatures hitting plantations during the crucial flowering stage.

Coffee growing regions in southern India received up to 70% lower rainfall than normal from March to mid-May. Reportedly, India is the sixth biggest coffee producer behind Brazil and Vietnam. India exports three-quarters of its coffee production and production problems are expected to dent shipments in FY17.

USDINR trade today trading up 3 paise at 66.77 per US dollar.

Out of 1,431 stocks traded on the NSE, 692 declined and 672 advanced today.

Top 5 Nifty Gainers: ONGC (1.83%), SBI (0.45%) and Dr. Reddys Lab (0.25%).

Top 5 Nifty Losers: Maruti Suzuki (-2.16%), Hero Motocorp (-1.91%), Tata Motors (-1.86%), Bajaj Auto (-1.83%) and BHEL (-1.82%),

To qualify NCFM Capital Market Dealers Module certification examination, register with Intelivisto.com and buy Capital Market comprehensive question bank which features mock test, chapter-wise and full length test as per NCFM standards. It also includes performance analysis tools to analyze the performance. For more information call on: +91-9582000102.

May 17

Daily Market Commentary : 16th May 2016

The Indian equity market ended with smart gains and closed near day’s high on Monday amid a see-saw trading session. After opening with positive bias indices slipped lower and remained under pressure in the first half of the day. Nifty closed with a gain of 46 points at 7,861 while Sensex ended with again of 164 points at 25,653.

Asian markets finished mostly higher. Japanese markets finished up by 0.33%. Chinese markets reversed their morning losses, with the Shanghai composite closing up by 0.84% and the Shenzhen composite ended higher by 1.72%. European markets are lower today as French and British stocks fell. The French CAC 40 is off 0.86% while the London FTSE 100 is down 0.34%.

The rupee was trading at 66.82 against the US$ in the afternoon session. Oil prices were trading at US$ 45.96 at the time of writing.

According to a leading financial daily, Steel Authority of India (SAIL) is planning to spend around Rs 60 billion on various modernization and expansion programs as well as on research and development (R&D) initiatives. In 2015-16, the public sector undertaking (PSU) had spent Rs 44.83 billion as capital expenditure.

The money will go to energy saving methods, enrich product mix, pollution control, developing mines and collieries to meet higher requirement of key inputs(Subscription Required) and to introduce customer centric processes.

Meanwhile, SAIL is in the process of enhancing its hot metal production capacity from 13.82 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) to 23.46 MTPA under its expansion and modernization program with an investment of Rs 619 billion, which is expected to be completed this fiscal. The script of SAIL finished the day down by 1.56% on the BSE.

Indian steel makers have been battling falling steel prices, high imports and muted demand in the last 12 months. The directorate general of foreign trade recently imposed a minimum import price (MIP)on 173 steel products. The prices range from US$ 352 per tonne to US$ 752 per tonne. The MIP has been imposed in order to counter the dumping of cheap Chinese steel and should help Indian steel companies.

Metal stocks finished the day on a positive note with Vedanta and JSW Steel leading the gains. After a prolonged weakness in commodity prices, metals stocks have been on the rise in the last three months. The BSE Metal index is almost up by 27% since mid-February. The recovery in the prices globally can be attributed to lower production and capacity curtailment.

Moving on to news from banking sector. According to a leading financial daily, the Finance Ministry in its 2015-16 annual report has said that the gross non-performing assets (GNPAs) of banks could rise to 6.9% by March 2017 in a “severe stress scenario”. Reportedly, the report said that the GNPA ratio may rise to 5.4% by September 2016 from 5.1% in September 2015. The Capital to Risk Asset Ratio, an indicator of bank’s capital adequacy, could decline to 10.4% by March 2017, from 12.7% as of September 2015.

The report also stated that the main reasons for increase in NPAs of banks include sluggishness in domestic growthduring the recent past, slowdown in recovery in the global economy and continuing uncertainty in the global markets. On external factors, it said, ban in mining projects, delay in clearance of projects in power and steel sector, volatility in prices of raw material and shortage of power have impacted operations in infrastructure sectors, which were aggressively funded by the banks in the past, have also resulted in rising NPAs.

USDINR trade today trading up 4 paise at 66.80 per US dollar.

Out of 1,411 stocks traded on the NSE, 673 declined and 683 advanced today.

Top 5 Nifty Gainers: Axis Bank (2.68%), ONGC (2.56%), GAIL (1.68%), Hero Motocorp (1.64%) and L&T (1.58%)

Top 5 Nifty Losers: Hind. Unilever (-1.12%), Tata Motors (-0.61%), NTPC (-0.50%), SBI(-0.40%) and Bharti Airtel (-0.06%),

To qualify NCFM Capital Market Dealers Module certification examination, register with Intelivisto.com and buy Capital Market comprehensive question bank which features mock test, chapter-wise and full length test as per NCFM standards. It also includes performance analysis tools to analyze the performance. For more information call on: +91-9582000102.