Jan 23

Daily Market Commentary – 23 Jan 2015

Indian equity market witnessed the big early trade rally led by the higher than expected size of the  stimulus program by ECB. Broad based indices Nifty and Sensex hits fresh high for the fourth consecutive  day of 8,866 and 29,408 respectively. Nifty ended the week at above the crucial level of 8,800 by gaining  74.20 points at 8,835.60 while Sensex ends at 29,278.84 surging 272.82 points.

The trigger for today’s rally was a 1.1 trillion euro stimulus announcement by the European Central Bank  overnight. The ECB said it would buy government bonds from this March until the end of September 2016  to kick-start the stagnant eurozone economy.

The rupee appreciated against the dollar, up 27 paise to 61.42 on dollar selling by exporters amid sustained capital inflows. Soaring domestic equity markets also supported the rupee.

Among the sectorial indices of NSE CNX AUTO led the gainers by surging 1.60%, followed by CNX  REALTY (1.50%) and CNX METAL (0.86%) while CNX MEDIA was only loser of the day, plunged by  0.07%.

Market Breath remained negative for the day with 821 shares ended in red, 403 in green and 33 remain  unchanged.

Out of 50 stocks of Nifty 31 were advanced and 19 were declined.

Top 5 Nifty Gainers: TATA POWER (6.24%), DLF (5.63%), CIPLA (4.15%), CAIRN (3.98%) and JINDAL  STEEL (3.68%)

Top 5 Nifty Losers: PNB (-2.68%), BHEL (-1.90%), GAIL (-1.87%), LUPIN (-1.29%), and HCL (-1.18%)

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Jan 22

Daily Market Commentary – 22 Jan 2015

Indian equity market ended positive for the 7th straight trading session led by strong buying by FIIs. Meanwhile broad based indices rallied in defined range throughout the day. Sensex for the 3rd consecuitve day hits its fresh high of 29,060 and wrapped up session at 29,006.02 gained 117.16 points or 0.41%. Sensex moves 28,000 to 29,000 mark in just two and a half months. It had hit 28,000 mark on Nov 5, 2014. Tracking the momentum Nifty surged 31.90 points to end the day at 8,761.40, after hitting all time high of 8,772.

Indian Markets extending its gain a ahead of European Central Bank meeting outcome later in the day on the hopes of quantitative easing by the European Central Bank.

The rupee traded flat to marginally lower as the dollar strengthened overseas. The rupee pared its early trade gain on mild bouts of dollar demand by importers. USDINR pair ended at 61.69 against a close of 61.74 yesterday.

Among the sectorial indices CNX Pharama (1.67%) was the biggest gainer followed by CNX Auto (0.71%) and CNX Media (0.70%) while CNX Energy (-0.84%) was the top loser. Most of the other sectorial indices ended in green terrain.

Market breath of NSE remain Negative for the day with 641 negative against 580 positve and 47 remian unchanged.

Out of 50 stocks of Nifty 31 ended in green, 13 in red and 1 reamin unchanged.

Top 5 Nifty Gainers: Sun Pharma (3.62%), Axis Bank (3.61%), DLF (3.48%), Tata Motors (2.65%) and IDFC (2.47%).

Top 5 Nifty Losers: Reliance (-2.49%), NTPC (-2.16%), PNB (-1.50%), HCL (-1.50%) and Tech Mahindra (-1.27%).

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Jan 23

Importance of Hedging

The financial market has numerous investment instruments and all of them come with their potential of profits and exposure to risk. One of the instruments are classified as derivatives. Derivatives are those instruments that derive their values from an underlying asset. Based upon the underlying, they could be called as equity derivatives, index derivatives, currency derivatives, commodities derivatives, etc. Derivatives not only helps in price discovery but also helps in transferring the risk. The risks could be Diversifiable or systematic and Non – Diversifiable or unsystematic and to minimize this risk fund managers, investors, businesses, banks, etc. uses hedging as a tool.

Hedging is a strategy that immunizes the risk of any potential losses against any negative price movement by transferring it to someone who is willing to accept it. People who take this risk are known as speculators. Speculators create a naked position and expect the market to move in their direction, hence, benefiting them. Their profits and losses are extreme, as they do not protect their position against diversity movement of the prices.

Hedging techniques generally involve the use of a bit of complex strategies using derivatives, commonly futures and options and in some cases hybrid instruments as well. Basically, it is done by creating either a counter position in derivatives or in equity with negative correlation. In this way, the profit of one instrument is offset by the loss of the other, limiting the profits and hence, minimizing the losses.

Hedging primarily uses Futures for security against any diversity in prices. Generally, future is a pre-defined contract whose price is determined by adjusting freight, handling, storage and quality costs, along with the impact of supply and demand factors to the spot price. There is regular change in the prices of spot and futures which is known as the basis, however, the risk arising out of the difference is defined as basis risk and the difference between spot and futures prices is defined as narrowing of the basis.

When the market is characterized by contango, narrowing of basis benefits the short hedger and a widening of the basis benefits the long hedger, whereas, in a market characterized by backwardation, a narrowing of the basis benefits the long hedger and a widening of the basis benefits the short hedger. However, if the difference between spot and futures prices increases (either on negative or positive side) it is defined as widening of the basis. The impact of this movement is opposite to that as in the case of narrowing.

We can understand Hedging by an example: An investor buys 1500 shares of XYZ company at Rs. 309 for a total of Rs. 4,63,575, with a view of rise in share prices over the next few months. But there is a fear of fall in share prices due to various circumstances. As his fears, the market falls and he would incur loss so to avoid this diversity against the price movement, he can hedge this position by selling Nifty Future.

First, he needs to consider the risk associated with the shares in respect to the Index, this is known as Beta. Beta is calculated by dividing the difference in rate of return of the share minus the risk free trade by the Index rate of return minus the risk free trade. Now supposingly, the Future of Nifty is trading at Rs. 5778 and the beta of the share is calculated to 0.81, to hedge the position he needs to sell Rs. 3,73,645 worth of Nifty Future i.e. approximately 64 units. Since, Nifty Index contains 50 units in 1 lot, he can either sell 1 lot of Nifty Future or 2 .If he over-hedges and sells 2 lots and the market falls 10%, then notionally, he is at a profit of Rs. 577.8 per lot and loss of Rs. 24.90 per share but an overall profit of Rs. 20,420. In this way the investor not only saved himself from a total loss of Rs. 37,364 instead earned Rs. 20,420 as his expectations.

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