Apr 06

Discovering Opening Price through Pre-Open Session

Note: One of our students preparing for NCFM Capital Markets (Dealers) Module Exam raised the query in the class about price discovery mechanism in pre-open session at exchanges. Since the subject-matter is not very much clear in the relevant study material, we at Intelivisto thought it to elaborate upon and make it easily comprehendible by the NCFM exam aspirants as well as anyone interested and dealing in the market. So, here we unfold the complicacy of pre-open session for you all. Enjoy learning…..

Discovering Opening Price through Pre-Open Session
In order to discover correct opening price and eliminate/minimize opening volatility in opening prices of securities, SEBI advised the exchanges to formulate a Pre-Open Session of 15 minutes ahead of the normal market using Call Auction mechanism. Earlier, price of first trade in any security used to be ascertained as its opening price, but this practice was manipulated and maligned by forming a cartel to open the prices at one’s desired level.

What is a Call Auction market?
In a Call Auction market, orders are pooled in the order book but remain unexecuted till the end of the order entry period, when the orders will get matched and get executed at the single call auction price that is so determined. At the call, all buy orders are aggregated into a downward sloping demand function and all sell orders are aggregated in an upward sloping supply function. The market opening price and quantity traded are derived based on aggregated supply and demand for the underlying. The orders that trade and the price and quantity at which they trade, are set by multilateral matching, rather than by the sequence of bilateral matching used to determine trades in earlier system of normal market.

Pre-Open Session
Pre-Open Session is a new innovation on exchange side to arrive at the ideal opening price of scrips for the current trading session. The session intends to reduce the volatility that accompanies during the beginning of the day and facilitates better price discovery.
The duration of Pre-Opening Session is of 15 minutes – from 9:00 A.M. to 9:15 A.M. The session has three phases–

Under this new arrangement, the exchange collects the orders for the first few minutes of this session. On the basis of orders received, the exchange arrives at an Equilibrium Opening Price and trades matchable orders on that price. Remaining orders are moved to normal trading session.

Equilibrium/discovery price
An equilibrium/discovery price is the price which is discovered in the pre-open session and all matching orders during pre-open session are executed at this price. Further, the normal market opens at this discovered price.

The equilibrium price is the price at which the maximum volume is executable. In case more than one price meets the said criteria, the equilibrium price shall be the price at which there is minimum order unmatched quantity. The absolute value of the minimum order unmatched quantity shall be taken into consideration. Further, in case more than one price has same minimum order unmatched quantity, the equilibrium price shall be the price closest to the previous day’s closing price. In case the previous day’s closing price is the mid-value of a price or prices which are closest to it, then the previous day’s closing price itself shall be taken as the equilibrium price.
Example 1: Let’s suppose, we have the following Order Book on a scrip:

The system will now calculate the cumulative tradable quantity @ each price

The maximum Tradable Quantity is @ Rs. 95, so the system will mark Rs. 95 as Opening Price and execute the tradable quantity at that price.
If you create a demand – supply curve based on the price and cumulative values, it would look like this.

The intersection of this curve is the price at which maximum transactions can be conducted and that’s the equilibrium price that comes out from this pre-open call auction.

Example 2: Another example of more than one price having minimum unmatched quantity–In the above example 103 and 96 are the prices wherein, the volume tradable and unmatched quantity is the same. To derive the equilibrium price only one price, which is closest to the previous day’s closing price of the said prices i.e. 103 and 96, will be considered. If previous day’s closing price is 95, then 96 may be considered as the equilibrium price. In case the previous day’s closing price is 105, then, 103 may be considered as the equilibrium price. In case the previous day’s closing price 99.5 which is the mid-value of 103 and 96, then the equilibrium price shall be the previous day’s closing price i.e. 99.5.

What happens to the pending unexecuted orders in pre-open session?
Pending unexecuted orders in pre-open session are shifted to the order book of the normal market session. All the unmatched market orders are converted to the limit orders at the discovery price as discovered in the pre-open session and carried forward to the normal trading session. All unmatched limit orders of pre-open session remain at the limit price as specified and carried forward to normal trading session.

In case the equilibrium price is not discovered in the pre-open session, wherein there are only market orders, the market orders shall be matched at previous day’s close price. All unmatched market orders shall be shifted to the order book of the normal market at previous day’s close price following time priority. Previous day’s close price shall be the opening price.

In case of equilibrium price is not discovered in the pre-open session and there are no market orders to be matched, all unmatched market orders (at previous day’s close price) and limit orders shall be shifted to the order book of the normal market following price time priority.

Apr 04

Daily Equity Market Report – April 4, 2013

Indian market benchmark indices Sensex shed around 500 points and Nifty tanks 175 points in two successive trading sessions. Today itself SENSEX closes at 18509.70, down by 292 points while NIFTY ended at 5574.75, down by 98.15 points. The benchmark indices breached their 200 DMA first time since August 2012.

Nifty opens below its previous day close tracking weak global cues. Indian market witnessed the selling pressure of FIIs. Political uncertainty and weak economic data puts indices under pressure.

Most of the sectoral indices traded in negative zone. Sector-wise CNX Realty index is biggest loser followed by IT and service sector. Realty trading down by 3.45%, IT and service sector down by 2.74% and 2.17% respectively.

Out of 50 shares of nifty index, 43 shares ended in red and 7 in green.

Top Five Nifty gainers: Dr. Reddy is the biggest gainer (3%) of the day followed by Coal India, HUL, Maruti and Tata Motors.

Top Five Nifty Losers: UltraTech cement fell down by 6.45% as the biggest loser of the day. JP Associates, Jindal steel, HCL and Reliance Infra followed the losing streak.

To understand the global practices prevailing in securities market, join our flagship course – Internationally Certified Financial Market Programme (CFMP). For more information call +91-9582000102.

Mar 18

Is import duty hike curb the gold demand?

On 21st January 2013 government raised the import duty on gold by 2 percent to 6 percent; this is the second hike in one year. Before this, in March 2012 government lifted import duty to 4%. On the very next day government increased the import duty on gold dore bars to 5% from 2%. Government’s action to pull up the import duty on dore will bridge the gap on import duties on bullion bars and dore, which had become an attractive import since April 2012, when the government doubled the tax on refined gold purchases from abroad to 4%.

What forced Government to take this action?

India is the world’s biggest importer of gold. For the past few years India imports gold around 800-1000 tonnes a year. According to the World Gold Council imports of gold by India stands at 223.1 tonnes out of 742.8 tonnes of the total world demand in the third quarter of this year, which is 9 per cent higher compared to same quarter of the previous year.

The decision of import duty hike is primarily aimed at trimming rising Current Account Deficit by discouraging investor from buying gold. Presently rising imports of gold have worried the government, which is battling a record high current account deficit. India imported $56.5 billion worth of gold in 2011-12, and by the end of December 2012, the country had already made purchases worth $38 billion. Gold has the biggest contribution on India’s current account deficit after crude oil. India’s current account deficit reached an all-time high of 5.4 per cent of gross domestic product in the July-September quarter. Due to the broadening current account deficit, mainly driven by large scale gold imports, the government was forced to raise the import duty on gold.

Finance minister Mr. P. Chidambaram had indicated that government will take measures to bring down the imports of gold after the release of unfavorable economic data on 2nd January anticipation of import duty hike led to a 15% increase in January import of gold to 75 tonnes as compared to the 65 tonnes of January 2012.

Gold: A Sound Investment

Gold is the most attractive asset and a savings instrument which gives nearly 30 per cent returns annually. Investor flock to gold as the metal is an excellent hedge against inflation. In 2011-12, WPI was up 8.9 per cent, whereas gold prices were up 33.5 per cent. The influential factor that reduces the impact of import duty hike is India’s penchant towards gold for weddings and other religious ceremonies. India’s gold imports have been relatively price-inelastic. Despite gold prices in dollar terms increasing by 26.4 per cent and 27.2 per cent in 2010-11 and 2011-12, the volume of gold imports increased by 12 per cent and 9.2 per cent, respectively.

Government prior steps became worthless

Historically, currencies were backed by gold. Government of India introduced gold control order in 1963 and gold control act in 1968 to control the gold related activities but these steps failed to yield the desired result. In 1963 after the border dispute with china, drains foreign exchange of India. To conserve precious foreign exchange Morarji Desai, finance minister came out with gold control order 1963 on which the production of gold jewellery above 14 carat fineness was banned, but this step didn’t work as per the expectation. In 1968 he imposed gold control act which prohibited citizens from owning gold in the form of bars and coins. All existing holding of gold coins and bars had to be converted to jewellery and declared to the authorities. Goldsmiths were not allowed to own more than 100g of gold. Licensed dealers were supposed to own between 400gm to 2kg of gold, depending upon the number of artisans employed by them. They were banned from trading with each other. However gold control act also failed to curb the import of gold. The response of the act was completely unexpected; it encourages the smuggling of gold. Indians denied the step of Morarji Desai and follow the unofficial and illegal path.

In early 90’s gold control act was abolished when Government of India had to transfer 40 tonnes of gold to London and swap for foreign exchange to tide over the country’s balance of payment crisis. After abolition of act government placed import duty on gold of Rs 250 on per 10 gm.

Impact of import duty hike on gold

Recent step of import duty hike, industry experts believe that it will only have a moderate effect on gold demand. As on date of announcement gold price went up by 1% and touched Rs.30847 mark at MCX on February contract, but the continuous appreciation of Indian rupee against dollar mitigated the rise to some extent. On 2nd January, February gold contract was trading at around Rs.31000 and USDINR January contract was trading at 54.5675. On the expiry day of USDINR i.e. January 29, the USDINR contract closed at 53.6975 and as can be seen that due to the appreciation of the INR Gold also went down to Rs.30234 The depreciation of USD against INR is mainly attributed to economic slowdown in US.

 

Chart showing daily return on GOLD and USDINR

India’s government also took series of steps last year to reduce gold imports, including an earlier increase in the import duty and banning banks from lending money to customers to buy gold. In beginning years of 21st century when the import duty on gold was 1%, import of gold was around 800 tonnes. In the year 2011 import duty was increased to 2%, and then country imported around 1,000 tonnes. In 2012, government raised duty to 4% and still country imported another 800 tonnes of gold.

Final thoughts

To summarize, it is very difficult to say that hike on import duty on gold will curb the demand as gold has always been regarded as best investment to hedge against inflation. By raising duty, it will only encourage illegal channels to replace official import channels as gold is required from birth till death in Indian tradition. Import duty hike on bullion has widened the gap between the Indian and international prices and this will force people to choose the smuggling route and illegally bring yellow metal in the country. Smuggling of gold has been increase by 8 times in current fiscal year compared to previous year and becomes headache for the Directorate of Revenue Intelligence (DRI). During current fiscal year DRI has seized Rs. 60.17 crore of smuggled gold, but India imports illegally much more to this. According to DRI officials they detect about 1 case in every 10 cases.

To discourage investment in physical gold government should introduce alternative financial instrument which provide an inflation hedge, attractive gold related schemes and gold backed financial products.