Dec 22

Daily Market Commentary : 21st Dec. 2016

Nifty opened above 8100 but was unable to sustain the same and lost momentum towards the end of trading hours. Sensex also closed in red and was down 0.25%.

For Nifty, 8150 remains the important immediate resistance for the index, sustaining above which buying might have been seen, however, as the market reached the closing hours it lost the resistance and touched a 1-month low.

As per the IMF (International Monetary Fund), most countries in the Middle East (which are largely responsible for the oil glut), including Saudi Arabia, will run out of cash within five years if oil stays below US$50 per barrel.

Moving on to the news from stocks in consumer durables sector. Titan Company Limited’s sales, both in the jewellery and watches segments, took an immediate hit in the days following the government’s demonetisation announcement on November 8.

The sales were impacted as much as 25% in the week following the decision of scrapping out higher denomination notes. For the entire month, the drop was around 5%. The impact has been felt more in smaller towns and on the network of around 800 dealers the company has, across the country. This was on account of cash being the preferred mode of payment.

Conversely, plastic card usage by customers had picked up at the retail stores. About 50% of the sales prior to demonetisation, card usage is over 70% now, the company stated.

Not surprisingly, sectors whose revenues have been hit the hardest by demonetisation have seen the biggest declines in their stock prices. The worst affected businesses are real estate, consumer durables and auto sectors.

However, the company expects to sustain the growth momentum in spite of some temporary setback due to demonetisation. Overall, Titan expects the growth in turnover to be in single digit this fiscal.

Nifty was down 21 points and closed at 8,061, while BSE Sensex ended with a loss of 66 points at 26242.

Nifty sectoral indices ended on a mixed note. Nifty Realty gained over 1% while Nifty FMCG dipped over 1%. While, Nifty Metal index ended on a positive note up 0.5%. The Nifty Metal index rose for the first time in four sessions led by gains in shares of Welspun Corp, Hindalco Industries and Hindustan Zinc. This positive trend was supported by a rise in rupee against the dollar.

The India VIX (Volatility) index was up 0.84% at 14.66. The BSE Midcap closed at 11984 and Smallcap indices closed at 11950. BSE Midcap closed marginally low while BSE Smallcap closed marginally high.

Gold was trading at Rs 27,097 per 10 gms and silver was trading at Rs 39,500 per kg.

The rupee was trading at 67.87 per dollar.

Out of 1886 stocks traded on the NSE, 886 declined and 697 advanced today.

Top 5 Nifty Gainers: Hind. Unilever (0.58%), Tata Motors (0.46%), Sun Pharma (0.39%), GAIL (0.07%) and Wipro (0.04%).

Top 5 Nifty Losers: Tata Steel (-2.27%), Adani Ports & Sez (-2.01%), Bharti Airtel (-1.59%), HDFC (-1.58%) and Axis Bank (-1.57%)

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Dec 21

Daily Market Commentary : 20th Dec. 2016

Nifty PSU Bank index extended its losses and fell by 3% to a one month low even as Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said the RBI is releasing adequate amount of currency everyday. TCS was the biggest gainer of the day and was up by 2.23%, while Mahindra & Mahindra Financial, Bharat Financial Inclusion, Bajaj Finance were down in the range of 2-6%.

Nifty closed at 8,082.40, down 21.95, while BSE Sensex ended with a loss of 66.72 points at 26,307.98.

Non-banking finance companies witnessed a fall. Experts said they have taken a hit due to uncertainty over earnings after demonetisation and as Maharashtra government said it will set up a probe on violations by microfinance companies in the state.

Public banks have been under pressure for the past few sessions as some of the measures announced by the RBI to incentivise digital payments are seen increasing their cost of operations.

The stocks of Mahindra & Mahindra Financial, Bharat Financial Inclusion, Bajaj Finance, Can Fin homes, Dewan Housing Finance were down 2-6%.

Most Asian indices ended down as shares in the emerging markets declined after the Bank of Japan kept its key policy rates unchanged. However, rates in Japan rose after the country’s central bank upgraded its outlook for the Japanese economy.

Straits Times traded at 2,911.31 and Hang Seng was at 21,729.06, both in red, whereas Nikkei 225 traded in green at 19,494.53 at the time of the filing of this report.

Reliance Communications fell 2.4% as Fitch cut its debt rating to B+. Oil and Natural Gas Corp hit a low as oil ministry seeks to halve crude oil cess to 10% in the budget.

The Indian rupee was down as foreign banks buy dollars, likely for FPI’s outflow from domestic markets. Dollar demand from oil importers and a rise in dollar globally were the factors that contributed to the downfall.

Gold was at Rs 27120 and silver was at Rs 39085.

The rupee is trading at 67.90 as per dollar.

Out of 1447 stocks traded on the NSE, 1040 declined and 356 advanced today.

Top 5 Nifty Gainers: Bajaj Auto (1.12%), Lupin Ltd. (1.04%), HDFC (0.96%), Maruti Suzuki (0.85%) and SBI (0.77%).

Top 5 Nifty Losers: TCS (-0.76%), GAIL (-0.61%), Tata Motors (-0.51%), L&T (-0.50%) and ITC Ltd. (-0.48%)

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Dec 20

Daily Market Commentary : 19th Dec. 2016

Sensex, Nifty traded in red throughout the day and ended on a weaker note than it opened. Nifty sectoral indices also ended in red while Nifty IT was in green and up very marginally by 0.01%. Also, the Sensex indices ended on a negative note after being marginally down.

Nifty closed was down 35 points and closed at 8,104, while BSE Sensex ended with a loss of 115 points at 26374.

On the global front, the Asian indices too ended in red. The investors were influenced by the weaker US markets closure last week as well as the Bank of Japan’s Monetary Policy announcement scheduled this week.

At the time of filing this report, the benchmark indices of Europe too were trading in red. The downtrend is primarily due to low volumes in trade as the winter holidays are round the corner in Europe.

Laurus Labs Ltd maintained its 12% up trend since morning till the end of trading hours.

Gold was trading at Rs 27,210 per 10 gms and silver was trading at Rs 39,529 per kg.

The Indian rupee was trading at 67.80 per dollar.

Out of 1897 stocks traded on the NSE, 986 declined and 628 advanced today.

Top 5 Nifty Gainers: TCS (1.75%), GAIL (1.27%), Coal India (1.27%), Infosys Ltd. (1.27%) and ITC Ltd. (1.14%).

Top 5 Nifty Losers: Bajaj Auto (-2.00%), Tata Steel (-1.12%), Bharti Airtel (-1.08%), ONGC (-1.07%) and ICICI Bank (-0.84%)

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