May 18

Daily Market Commentary : 17th May 2016

The Indian equity market managed to eke out modest gains on Tuesday extending winning streak to second consecutive trading session. Overnight gains in the US and Asian markets lifted the benchmarks to open with a positive gap up, indices remained upbeat in first half, however, a sudden bout of selling pressure in the power, telecom, FMCG and few metals stocks dragged indices off day’s high finally. Nifty closed with a gain of 30 points at 7,891 while Sensex ended with a gain of 120 points at 25,774.

Barring China, major Asian markets finished on a positive note as of the most recent closing prices. Stock markets in Singapore and Japan ended the day higher by 1.6% and 1.1% respectively. Oil prices were trading at US$ 47.90 a barrel at the time of writing. The rupee was trading at 66.72 against the US$.

Sectoral indices finished the day on a positive note with stocks from oil &gas and automobile sectors witnessing buying interest.

As per an article in leading financial daily, Bharat Forge reported its results for the quarter ended March 2016. The company’s revenues declined by 17.6% YoY to Rs 10 billion during the quarter. The revenue was impacted by subdued demand of commercial vehicles (CV) from North America. Reportedly, the exports declined by 28.7% as compared to a year ago. While, the business from America too declined by 41.8%.

Further, the operating profits fell by 17.1% YoY to Rs 2.9 billion. However, operating margins improved by 0.2% YoY to 29.6% during the quarter. The margins expanded on the back of lower raw material costs and other expense.

The company’s net profits declined by 19% to Rs 1.6 billion during the quarter. The management expects the demand to worsen in the first quarter of FY17 as compared to the fourth quarter of FY16 because of inventory destocking and continued weakness in the export market.

The company is gearing itself to capitalise on the opportunities presented by the Modi government’s ‘Make in India’ programme particularly in the rail, power, defense and aerospace sector. Going forward, a revival in demand from North America coupled with the order inflows from the ‘Make in India’ initiative will be the key things to watch out for the company.

In another news update, India’s coffee output is expected to drop by around a quarter to the lowest in nearly two decades in the next crop year. This is on account of poor rains and hot temperatures hitting plantations during the crucial flowering stage.

Coffee growing regions in southern India received up to 70% lower rainfall than normal from March to mid-May. Reportedly, India is the sixth biggest coffee producer behind Brazil and Vietnam. India exports three-quarters of its coffee production and production problems are expected to dent shipments in FY17.

USDINR trade today trading up 3 paise at 66.77 per US dollar.

Out of 1,431 stocks traded on the NSE, 692 declined and 672 advanced today.

Top 5 Nifty Gainers: ONGC (1.83%), SBI (0.45%) and Dr. Reddys Lab (0.25%).

Top 5 Nifty Losers: Maruti Suzuki (-2.16%), Hero Motocorp (-1.91%), Tata Motors (-1.86%), Bajaj Auto (-1.83%) and BHEL (-1.82%),

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May 17

Daily Market Commentary : 16th May 2016

The Indian equity market ended with smart gains and closed near day’s high on Monday amid a see-saw trading session. After opening with positive bias indices slipped lower and remained under pressure in the first half of the day. Nifty closed with a gain of 46 points at 7,861 while Sensex ended with again of 164 points at 25,653.

Asian markets finished mostly higher. Japanese markets finished up by 0.33%. Chinese markets reversed their morning losses, with the Shanghai composite closing up by 0.84% and the Shenzhen composite ended higher by 1.72%. European markets are lower today as French and British stocks fell. The French CAC 40 is off 0.86% while the London FTSE 100 is down 0.34%.

The rupee was trading at 66.82 against the US$ in the afternoon session. Oil prices were trading at US$ 45.96 at the time of writing.

According to a leading financial daily, Steel Authority of India (SAIL) is planning to spend around Rs 60 billion on various modernization and expansion programs as well as on research and development (R&D) initiatives. In 2015-16, the public sector undertaking (PSU) had spent Rs 44.83 billion as capital expenditure.

The money will go to energy saving methods, enrich product mix, pollution control, developing mines and collieries to meet higher requirement of key inputs(Subscription Required) and to introduce customer centric processes.

Meanwhile, SAIL is in the process of enhancing its hot metal production capacity from 13.82 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) to 23.46 MTPA under its expansion and modernization program with an investment of Rs 619 billion, which is expected to be completed this fiscal. The script of SAIL finished the day down by 1.56% on the BSE.

Indian steel makers have been battling falling steel prices, high imports and muted demand in the last 12 months. The directorate general of foreign trade recently imposed a minimum import price (MIP)on 173 steel products. The prices range from US$ 352 per tonne to US$ 752 per tonne. The MIP has been imposed in order to counter the dumping of cheap Chinese steel and should help Indian steel companies.

Metal stocks finished the day on a positive note with Vedanta and JSW Steel leading the gains. After a prolonged weakness in commodity prices, metals stocks have been on the rise in the last three months. The BSE Metal index is almost up by 27% since mid-February. The recovery in the prices globally can be attributed to lower production and capacity curtailment.

Moving on to news from banking sector. According to a leading financial daily, the Finance Ministry in its 2015-16 annual report has said that the gross non-performing assets (GNPAs) of banks could rise to 6.9% by March 2017 in a “severe stress scenario”. Reportedly, the report said that the GNPA ratio may rise to 5.4% by September 2016 from 5.1% in September 2015. The Capital to Risk Asset Ratio, an indicator of bank’s capital adequacy, could decline to 10.4% by March 2017, from 12.7% as of September 2015.

The report also stated that the main reasons for increase in NPAs of banks include sluggishness in domestic growthduring the recent past, slowdown in recovery in the global economy and continuing uncertainty in the global markets. On external factors, it said, ban in mining projects, delay in clearance of projects in power and steel sector, volatility in prices of raw material and shortage of power have impacted operations in infrastructure sectors, which were aggressively funded by the banks in the past, have also resulted in rising NPAs.

USDINR trade today trading up 4 paise at 66.80 per US dollar.

Out of 1,411 stocks traded on the NSE, 673 declined and 683 advanced today.

Top 5 Nifty Gainers: Axis Bank (2.68%), ONGC (2.56%), GAIL (1.68%), Hero Motocorp (1.64%) and L&T (1.58%)

Top 5 Nifty Losers: Hind. Unilever (-1.12%), Tata Motors (-0.61%), NTPC (-0.50%), SBI(-0.40%) and Bharti Airtel (-0.06%),

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May 16

Daily Market Commentary : 13th May 2016

After shutting above the 7900 mark in the previous trading session, the Indian equity market closed with a sharp cut on Friday. Disappointing macro economic data dampened the mood on street. IIP rose by just 0.1% in March, down from a 1.9% increase in February. While, retail inflation surged to 5.39% in April from 4.83% in March on account of rise in food inflation. Nifty closed with a loss of 86 points at 7,815 while Sensex ended with a loss of 301 points at 25,490.

Eicher Motors tumbled 3.8% to Rs.18,996 on BSE today. Around 11.4 lakh shares were traded in a multiple block on NSE. According to media reports, promoters sold 4.2% stake at Rs.2,100 crore for personal use. Around 1.15 million shares representing 4.25% of total equity of Eicher Motors changed hands, NSE data showed.

Manappuram Finance hit 20% upper circuit to Rs. 50.25.The company posted a net profit of Rs. 1307.000 million for the Quarter ended March 31, 2016 as compared to Rs. 700.370 mn for the Quarter ended March 31, 2015.

Federal Bank soared 2.3% at Rs.50 on BSE today. Around 11.4 lakh shares were traded in a multiple block at Rs.49.80 on the NSE.

Polaris Consulting & Services dropped 5.3% to Rs.187.20 after the company posted a net profit of Rs. 51.035 mn for the Quarter ended March 31, 2016 as compared to Rs. 370.851 mn for the Quarter ended March 31, 2015.

Nestle India jumped 7.4% to Rs. 6,128. The company reported standalone net profit of Rs.259 crore for the quarter ended March 31, 2014, registering decline of 19.13% yoy, but growth of 41.38%.

Aditya Birla Fashion and retail climbed 4.5% to Rs.158.60 after the company said in a notice to BSE that it signed deal to bring Simon Carter to India.

Monsanto India gained 1.3% Rs. 2536. According to media reports, German agro-chemicals company Bayer AG and Switzerland-based BASF is in talks to initiate a $40 billion takeover of the company.

Crompton Greaves Consumer Electrical, the de-merged entity of Crompton Greaves, today got listed at Rs. 126.20 on BSE. The stock has hit upper circuit 5% at Rs.132.50 on the BSE.

Shares of fertilizers companies rallied by up to 9% on the BSE. GNFC, National Fertilizers and Deepak Fertilisers & Petrochemicals Corporation and Aries Agro hit their respective 52-week highs in intra-day trade.

Havells India rallied 5.2% on BSE to Rs. 360 after the company was included in the MSCI India index today. The inclusion will be effective from June 1. Apart from Havells, Bajaj Finance closed marginally lower on BSE. The company has also been included in the list. Besides, Yes Bank and Titan Company Ltd are also the new entrants to the MSCI India index, but they failed to cheer the investors as they fell into red.

USDINR trade today trading down down 15 paise at 66.77 per US dollar.

Out of 1,309 stocks traded on the NSE, 824 declined and 995 advanced today.

Top 5 Nifty Gainers: Dr Reddys Lab (3.02%), Asian Paints (1.19%), Lupin Ltd (0.97%), Tata Motors (0.88%) and TCS (0.46%)

Top 5 Nifty Losers: SBI (-2.43%), Bharti Airtel (-2.28%), GAIL (-1.86%), ONGC (-1.27%) and Hind. Unilever (-1.22%),

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